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However, the latest filing does not create such a system right away. Its OIRA entry describes the action as a preliminary measure and says it is not economically significant under the relevant review criteria. No legal deadline has been listed for review either.
It could, therefore, take quite a bit longer than the timing of the initial filing indicates. The CFTC would have to publish its action and solicit public comment after White House review before writing a formal proposed rule. Any final rule would have to undergo another review and comment period before it could take effect.
The distinction matters for crypto businesses. The filing shows regulatory work is moving forward, but exchanges and other market participants cannot yet consider it a set of rules they must adhere to.
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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
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“Trust is fundamental to the responsible adoption of AI. As its use becomes increasingly embedded across the gaming sector, organisations need practical ways to understand where AI is being used, manage the associated risks and ensure that accountability and human oversight remain firmly in place,” he said.
“The AI gaming charter translates these principles into practical, sector-specific guidance,” he added.
The charter also made a series of other recommendations. It suggested that companies should designate a senior member of staff responsible for governance of the technology. It additionally recommended an AI oversight or ethics committee.
