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With it being Thomas Tuchel’s first taste of the bizarrely feisty fixture – before the turn of the Millennium, there was little to suggest this would develop into any kind of fierce rivalry – this is sure to be a decent game.
Tuchel’s Chelsea have a new-found belief and that has been married with a strong defence in recent games. The issue has been goals, with a distinct lack of them so far, although that might change at the weekend. United have looked good going forward this season – no team has scored more than the Red Devils in domestic fixtures – but at the back they look almost inept at times. Newcastle opened them up on several occasions and while Chelsea aren’t the league’s great entertainers, we can see them causing United a deal of problems. For that reason, we’d go with the over 3.5 goals price.
Our tip: Over 3.5 goals (23/10)
How to play MEGA
Two operators alone – Kalshi and Polymarket – topped the combined $1 billion mark in NFL trading activity over the first six days of Week 1, according to numerous measures this week. During the period, Kalshi recorded NFL volume of $983.4 million, according to DeFi Rate, earning the pole position by a large margin. Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs thrashed the Denver Broncos 31-10 on Monday Night Football, capping the largest week for prediction markets ever.
Even before the primetime matchup in Kansas City, it became abundantly clear that the industry would shatter previous marks for weekly activity. The AFC West showdown bolstered the already robust totals. Overall, volume for the week hit a record $15.9 billion, according to Bank of America, up 16% from a week earlier.
The pure-play prediction market-operators, Polymarket and Kalshi, emerged from Week 1 as the clear winners. On one hand, Kalshi’s market share lead narrowed over its competitors, falling to 82% for the week ended 13 September, down from 86% a week earlier.
How to play MEGA
The institutional layer is largely invisible to customers presented with a P2P proposition. Retail users may technically trade against one another, but the depth required by a mass-market product cannot be supplied by occasional customers alone. Professional firms must be prepared to quote continuously and commit substantial capital.
Marantelli says the London-based White Swan is a significant market maker on several secondary exchanges, accounting for as much as 40% of activity on some platforms. Its particular focus is the RFQ, parlay market.
“Just better margins,” he says of that decision. “I think it’s more defendable. It’s the area that fewer people can do well. So I think it’s more defendable margin, more ability to get long-term contracts and beneficial positions.”
